Thursday, January 7, 2010

More details about that Lubbock poll from last month...

Back on December 20 I wrote a blog about a poll that had been reported on in the Lubbock news (link). Because the poll showed Rick with a huge lead over Kay there was a lot of back and forth with other pollsters at the Texas Tribune and Kay's campaign about how valid the poll really was... the consensus seemed to be that it was a suspicious poll that just happened to pass the smell test... maybe by accident...

I contacted Mike Stevens to learn more about his methodology... Here is what he sent me...

Hello and thanks for your inquiry. In this particular poll it was conducted the first two weeks of October 2009 with just over 18,000 likely Lubbock county voters. We use an online tool at to create a random sampling. From there you can take the poll at this is a gurl or general URL landing page. Everyone within the poll had their own personalized web site to respond to so we know who responded and their voting history and demographics appended when they responded. So for example my poll was

If you would like to sit in on a go to meeting and see how the software works and how we control the data please call the toll free number below and my info I listed I would be glad to take a few minutes and show you the process

Here is the results on one of our questions

Tx Governor 2010 Republican Primary vote

Kay Bailey Hutchison


Rick Perry




Mike Stevens

This number is actually very close to the number Rick's campaign manager purposely "leaked" showing Rick at 49, Kay at 36, with 5 for Medina and the rest undecided... without Medina among the choices it is hard to make an apples to apples comparison... it is still news worthy from a blog stand point.

The belief among people I talk to is that Kay will do better in Dallas because that is her home base... Rick will do better in smaller cities... Kay will do better in Austin and heavily hispanic areas... Rick will do better in Houston...

I think there will be some regional differences, but I think the vote will break down more along ideology than geography... are there really more moderates voting in Republican primaries in Dallas and more conservatives in places like Lubbock and Abilene?

My perception is that there are conservatives everywhere, and they dominate the Republican primary in Texas. I also believe Kay's team is aware of this... which is why she has stopped trying to carve out that moderate niche and started trying to move to the right of Rick on certain issues... you just can't win by winning "new voters" and "moderates" in a Republican primary completely dominated by strong conservatives who pay close attention.

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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.