I've been lobbied pretty hard by someone trying to discredit the UT poll that came out recently that showed the Rick vs. Kay race within the margin of error (Kay with a slight lead) among Republican primary voters. The poll may or may not be crummy. I don't really know enough about the polling methodology to pick it apart.
What I do know is that it is a University-based poll, and it is a poll based in Texas, conducted by Texas experts (link). Their findings on issues like Voter ID are also in line with the polling I have seen in recent years, which gives me some confidence that they know what they are doing.
What I find ironic about the gnashing over the UT poll is that the same people lobbying to discredit that poll talk a lot about the Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll showing Kay up over Rick by 25 points (link).
Again, I don't claim to be a polling expert or even a novice, but the PPP poll makes me a lot more suspicious. It is based in North Carolina. They don't know a lot about Texas. Their clients include almost entirely left-leaning groups. They also recently claimed that Obama would beat Palin in Texas (link). Really? Have these people ever been near Texas? That one just does not pass the smell test. It also serves to undermine their other polling, which may be accurate for all we know.
My point remains that horserace polling this far out is not very accurate. Wait until late this year or early next year before drawing any serious conclusions from polls in this race.
I am a wannabe and future pollster. From what I am seeing from my graduate classes, I will just make a bold prediction: Rick Perry 53%, Kay Bailey Hutchison 45%, other(s) 2%.
ReplyDeleteI know Daron. I will see what he has to say and report back.
ReplyDelete