Yesterday we polled on next Tuesday's elections, and the overwhelming majority of junkies (that would be 97.3 of us junkies) believe we'll pick up NY-23. We like that because we're Democrats, and haven't held the seat since it was redistricted in the early '90's.
But there is another story here, and it relates to the soul of the Republican Party as they find their footing. We've talked before about whether the possibility that the Perry-Hutchison gubernatorial primary will be a parable for the battle between the right and the far right, but this is certainly the opening act. MUCH more so than either New Jersey or Virginia.
The Republican elites have their own road map, of course, the same one that detoured us over that cliff a few years back. Their plan goes roughly like this. Vote for Charlie Crist in Florida over conservative Mario Rubio. Unseat the conservative governor in Texas in favor of someone more moderate like Kay Bailey Hutchison. Raise money and campaign for a Congressional candidate in New York State who is more liberal than the Democrat in the race.
Let John "the media is my base" McCain redefine the Republican Party in his image (how many electoral votes did he win again, against a relative novice?). Oh, and turn the other way while Senator Lindsey Graham, who told us he was "Mr. Conservative" to get elected, works on a climate change bill with John Kerry (D-France). We need to do these things, our strategists tell us, in order to win an election. Then once we're back in power, we'll be conservatives again, they promise. Where have we heard that before?
The Republican Party may indeed be making some gains against the Obama Democrats, but that's not because we suddenly became geniuses. And it's not because we are hiding our conservative lights under bushels. If we are pulling ahead it's because the Democrats are in charge now, and their failings - currently at least - are more pronounced than our own.
I listened in fascination as the caller argued that conservative voters should support Hoffman instead of Scozzafava. It was the same purifying instinct that you see from folks here like Michael Quinn Sullivan and Cathie Adams, the new Republican party chairman.
[SNIP]
As long as conservatives believe that moderates in their own party are the enemy, Republicans will continue to lose ground nationally (if they have any ground left to lose). And Texas is not immune. There is a very real danger that Rick Perry’s attacks on Kay Bailey Hutchison, if successful, will continue to drive the moderate R’s out of the party into the independent column, accelerating the possibility that a Democrat could win the general election. Oh, wait. The D’s would have to field a credible candidate. Never mind.
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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.