On Monday, I put up a blog about how two of Kay's former press secretaries disagreed on how Rick's secession comments are playing (link).
On Tuesday, PoliTex grabbed that idea and went with it (link), which then got passed around further.
Mackowiak makes the claim, "No one in Austin who is not employed by Gov. Perry thinks that he will beat Sen. Hutchison," which sounds a lot like the Kay strategy in general elections against weak Democrats. It makes total sense when your entire strategy is inevitability, invulnerability, and coronation prelude against a Barbara Ann Radnofsky caliber opponent.
When you're in a dogfight, and Rick will fight like a junkyard dog if he needs to, you can't use that strategy. Kay is going to have to engage, and pulling the "my poll numbers are higher" card is not going to work in a Republican primary. Lt. Gov. Dewhurst is guilty of this too and people mock him pretty viciously for it behind his back.
I know plenty of people in Austin and outside of Austin, Republican/Democrat/independent who think Rick is going to beat Kay by the end of this race. Indeed, that list includes Democrat Martin Frost (link), Phillip Martin of Burnt Orange is practically obsessive with regards to incessantly declaring Rick the winner (link), and recent Kay staffer James Bernsen also seems to disagree (link) with his fellow Kay alumnus. What their motives all are, I don't know.
If I were handicapping this race, I'd say Kay might win 51-49% if the election were held today, but I think Rick is doing all the right things for the GOP base right now while Kay is running her usual safe general election strategy. In 11 months, we'll see how the two respond to the pressure of one of the hottest primaries in the country.