Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Rick and Kay, neck and neck in new poll...

A new poll came out today confirming the poll from UT a few weeks ago (link). Basically, both of these polls have Kay up by a small margin. When the titles of the two were given (Senator and Governor respectively), Rick was up by a small margin. When just the names of the two were given, Kay was up by 11. Seems like people are reacting negatively to Washington, DC in the survey. Thanks to Wayne Slater, here is the whole survey (link)...

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Harvey Kronberg also has the letter that Rick's campaign manager sent out to key supporters on his Daily Buzz, but I can't figure out how to link directly to it.

The poll itself is interesting, but the fact that it came out at all is almost more interesting. Gardner Selby highlights this quote (link)...
We have never released poll numbers — ever. It’s a bad habit. But since you’re so involved in our ongoing efforts and hopefully in what will be a great campaign I wanted you to see them and hoping you will keep them tightly held. Remember we need to keep our eye of the ball and not get ahead of ourselves.
So much for that.

The poll is from Rick's camp, but the pollster himself is very well respected in Texas. He is kind of the king of polling from my experiences. I doubt he would just make up numbers, especially if they were for internal consumption.

Their polling shows that Rick has tapped into something really powerful right now... namely, the anti Washington and anti bailout sentiments that are so prevalent among Republicans.

Among people who say the GOP is headed in the right direction, 58% say Texas GOP leaders should get the credit, while only 25% say Washington GOP leaders get the credit. Among people who say the GOP is headed the wrong direction, 87% blame GOP leaders in Washington, compared to 3% who say Texas GOP leaders deserve the blame.

A few of the lines from Rick's campaign manager that struck me as especially relevant included...
As an aside, apparently the Senior Senator was speaking to a group of Texans recently in DC.  She was asked about the Governor's race and replied essentially that she had ALREADY WON the primary as she was ahead in the polls and was now focused on the general election. That’s the kind of attitude that shows not only a disdain for Republican Primary voters in Texas, but is typical of someone who has been inside the DC beltway for so long they don’t realize that they have become part of the problem.
If that's true, it is nuts for Kay to be doing that. I haven't heard that anywhere else, but complacency is not going to win Kay this election. The person who works the hardest will win in my estimation.

UPDATED at 5:40 in the evening...

R.G. Ratliffe did an interview with Kay's pollster and posted it online (link). Kay's pollster called the poll propagandistic, which is "fightin' words" to the pollster who did this survey. Kay's pollster seems to be misunderstanding something in the poll. As far as I can tell, the only difference in the split sample is that one sample has the titles (Governor and Senator) while the other doesn't. Kay's pollster is arguing that the split with Rick leading must have been a push poll.

One other thing that was even more interesting than Kay's pollster calling a poll propagandistic is Kay's pollster saying he would advise Kay to stay in the Senate. Yes, you read that correctly. Kay's pollster said that he thinks Kay should remain in the Senate.

R.G. asked... "What do you think, is Kay going to resign to run?"

Kay's pollster said in response, "You know, I don't know. We all know there's been a little change in the numbers, in terms of 59 and 60, based on the Specter defector situation. I don't know. I've not been asked my personal opinion, but I know that there's a lot of discussion about it, but if I were to be asked, my opinion would be for her to stay in as Senator and keep working for the state of Texas. I think it's excellent. But this will be up to her and up to the as you say circumstances..."

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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.