Sotomayor and Kay... what will she do?

I said it before and I will say it again.

There is almost no way Kay can vote for Sotomayor. Plus she already voted against her ten years ago.

Still, a lot of people are speculating...

Politico says (link)...

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas): Voting-age Hispanics represent about 29 percent of Texas’ population, according to figures computed after the 2008 general election by the group the National Committee for an Effective Congress. Hutchison voted against Sotomayor in 1998 when she was nominated to a federal appeals court. But she wasn’t a candidate for governor, as she is now, and her party wasn’t as desperate for Latino votes as it is now. 

The trick for Hutchison: Before she can run in the general election, she’s got to beat conservative Texas Gov. Rick Perry in the GOP primary. That may force her to play to the base to win over skeptical conservative primary voters – even if that means losing support from Hispanics in a general-election run. Her Texas counterpart, John Cornyn, head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, also will have to gauge any Hispanic backlash since many GOP candidates in 2010 will certainly be reading his signals. 

Wrong. Why would there be any Hispanic backlash? That is just wishful thinking.

The very liberal Burnt Orange blog says that Kay has a tough choice to make (link)...

So, KBH has a quandary, in voting on a judicial nominee who is highly, highly likely to be approved. As widely noted, Sotomayor is as highly qualified as any nominee has been for the bench in decades. Her education is impeccable, her experience unmatched. She has not shown a record that can be considered overly political or ideological. Opposition can thus only be mustered on partisan lines against the nominating President, or because of naked identity politics.

And she's not just voting as any rank-and-file Republican, she's voting as one about to square off in a primary battle against Rick Perry, a candidate who has shown next-to-zero restraint in pandering to the far-right fringe. With these early statements, is KBH trying to pander to the right-wing voters she'll need in her primary? Is she going to vote against Sotomayor, and make sure that Perry can't accuse her of supporting "liberal judicial activists?"

What if Hutchison wants to woo women and Latinos over to the Republican primary (especially if we lack a suitable Democratic contest) to make sure we don't suffer 4 more years of Rick Perry? A vote against Sotomayor can call that strategy into question for sure.

As I said before, Kay has to vote no on this confirmation. There really is no other choice. Her vote in favor of Hilda Solis for Labor Secretary, which should be earning her lots of points among Hispanics and liberals and lots of anger among conservatives, has generated nothing on either side, probably because nobody knows anything about Solis. Nobody paid attention to that vote. This vote people are paying attention to, and Kay cannot afford to vote in favor of Sotomayor. It would end her primary campaign right then and there. 

So where is Rick on Sotomayor?

Wayne Slater points out that both Karl Rove and Rick tweeted against Sotomayor (link) last night. Rick at this point is more anti Sotomayor than Kay, and Rick doesn't even have a real dog in the hunt.