Rick back up by 12% over Kay...

Rick has been up over Kay in just about every poll for the past six months, ranging from several points up to more than a dozen points...

The exception was in mid September when Kay was up by 2 points in the anomalous Rasmussen poll that seemed to over sample Democrats (link).

Today the brand new Texas Tribune decided to pay for some buzz by paying for a poll to release on its first day (link)...

Gov. Rick Perry leads U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison by 12 percentage points in the Republican primary for governor, but she does better than him in hypothetical matchups with Democrats in next November's general election.

In the inaugural University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, Perry had the support of 42 percent of self-identified Republican primary voters, against Hutchison's 30 percent. Debra Medina got 7 percent, enough — even if she doesn't improve her numbers — to act as a spoiler in the March 2 primary.

Even after taking a series of punches straight to the gut from the national media and the local press, Rick still managed to come out on top by 12 points over Kay.

Paul Burka blames it on Kay herself (link). Excerpt follows...

Perry’s lead is 42-30. This seems on the mark to me. You’ll have to take my word for it, but if this had been roulette, I would have put my chips on 12. Hutchison’s campaign has been abysmal. Her handling of her resignation, or non-resignation, from the Senate has made her look weak and indecisive. She comes across as lacking self-confidence. And lacking ideas. To make matters worse, she is down by 12 after a six-week stretch during which Perry was hammered by the media, a time during which she had a chance to gain ground. She continues to pursue a strategy of single-shot criticisms of Perry without giving any definition to her own candidacy. She is now at the same level in the polls that Perry was at the beginning of the race. The problem here is not the campaign. It’s the candidate.

I agree with that last line... Kay's campaign is doing just fine with a few exceptions where they push out attacks that just are not credible. Kay herself has offered no specifics on policy, and she is irking a lot of activists who just want to know what her plans are...

Rick is just plain out working and out conservative-ing Kay right now, and he is perceived as the standard bearer for the party right now. I don't think Kay's current plan of trying to get to the right of Rick is going to work unless she is prepared to go all in... and I do not think she is prepared to go all in.

Kay just needs to peel some of the hard right off or send them toward Medina then bring in new moderates if she is going to have a chance.

Frankly I think Rick's peeps have to be elated right now whether they are saying it or not. This was a bad few weeks for Rick in the media no matter how they spin it. I think what this shows is that Rick is already a known commodity. There are a lot of people who hate his guts. That won't change much... but there are also a lot of people who love the guy and are out there working hard for him. When it comes to Kay the feelings are a lot more neutral and shallow... there are not a lot of people who absolutely hate Kay, but there are also not many people who love Kay. She is kind of a middling political figure. Media coverage like Rick got over the past several weeks could have had more of a negative impact on her. Campaign commercials could do the same.

I think Kay's peeps have to be sitting there scratching their heads wondering how Rick seems so teflon. There are many bad news articles and television reports about Rick every week, and none of them seem to be having any noticeable impact on the horse race between Rick and Kay.

Paul Burka would have put his money on 12 at the roulette table. I might put my money on that if the election were held next week... there are still a few months to go though and I think Kay could narrow that somewhat. I don't really see her winning this race however unless Rick has a true macaca moment...