New poll numbers... scientific and unscientific... important timing...

Now for the final blog before I hop on a flight and head back home with the family for turkey day...

Mr. Sullivan down at Texans for Fiscal Responsibility is running one of those web polls that the campaigns love to hate so much... looks like Rick is running away with it so far (link).

Rick is winning by a lot with the Empower Texans peeps, which is not all that surprising. Medina being high up there is not all that surprising either... Ron Paul's peeps are good at finding and participating in open internet based polls...

That poll is very unscientific and really just shows that Rick has more people who like Michael Q. Sullivan's group and more people who use the internet maybe...

Sullivan also commissioned a real poll... a scientific one... it says that Kay should just stay in the senate and not run for governor (link)...

Texas Republican primary voters believe that Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson should devote herself fulltime to fighting President Obama’s policies for her full term

o We asked the question:

Please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statement: I would prefer that Kay Bailey Hutchinson devote her full attention to the United State Senate fighting Obama’s misguided policies until her term expires in 2012 and not run for Governor.

o Seven-in-ten (69%) of Texas Republican primary voters agree with the statement

o Only one quarter (24%) disagree with the statement

Important timing being that it is right before Thanksgiving and it gives Kay a lot to think about before maybe or maybe not filing next week... this is definitely the sentiment I am hearing not just in Texas but where I have been this week as well... people are asking me "why would Kay want to primary Rick?" As if I answer for her just because I am from Texas...

It is a good question though. Kay has never really developed a solid rationale for challenging Rick other than her supporters said it was her job 4 years ago if she just waited until now...

This poll might indicate that Sullivan is on Rick's team but not officially yet... is he perhaps in on "Operation Intervention" as reported by Jason Embry (link)?... and if he is on his team then she will have an even more up hill battle...

What it looks like to me so far is that Empower Texans will remain neutral so as not to anger people who are for Kay or even Medina but they are also pushing to avoid a messy primary battle.

Texans for Fiscal Responsibility is probably one of the most influential remaining groups that could endorse other than perhaps the Texas Association of Business or the National Rifle Association... In fact the NRA would probably be the crown jewel of almost any Republican primary campaign. I don't know many candidates who have won when their opponents have been endorsed by the NRA. I suspect the NRA will stay neutral as well...

I also can't contemplate a scenario in which a candidate has the pro life groups, the NRA, and the pro business/taxpayer watchdog groups and loses in the Republican primary. So far Rick has the pro life groups nailed down... dog bites man... but those other ones may prove elusive with Kay pushing hard to earn their favor... in fact, I would be shocked if those remaining groups ever endorse even if they do have a preference.