In a podcast recording last week... apparently made before the news of the 12 point lead for Rick came out... Jason Embry did a podcast with Michael Quinn Sullivan of Empower Texans and the two discussed the Rick and Kay race (link).
In the podcast, Sullivan was asked whether he would support Rick or Kay, and Sullivan responded by saying that he thought the race might not be between Rick and Kay. When pressed to elaborate, Sullivan explained that he thought Kay might drop out before then. Sullivan... who is always critical of all Republicans for not being conservative enough... seemed to indicate that Kay ought to stay in the Senate, not just that she might... but ought to not run for governor.
I have heard hints from both sides that they both believe Sullivan is going to eventually endorse their candidate... Rick or Kay. If Sullivan's comments on the podcast about Kay not running are any indication, I find it difficult to believe that he would endorse Kay over Rick. I could see him having problems with both candidates, but I also don't see him endorsing someone like Larry Kilgore or Debra Medina or even Leo Berman, who has dropped out to throw his support behind Rick. If it comes down to endorsing and helping privately, I think Sullivan would have to side with Rick. If the question is whether to leverage his organization behind Rick, that might be trickier...
Getting the endorsements of Michael Sullivan, Bill Hammond, Cathie Adams, Joe Pojman, and some of the other conservative and business interest group leaders would be a huge signal to the base on economic issues, social issues, and other issues. I am not sure Kay could overcome that sort of endorsed support, unless she truly drops a 14 or 15 million dollar fund raising bomb this afternoon and her poll numbers somehow improve between now and late this year.