Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Texas less likely to switch because Kay more likely to drop out?

FiveThirtyEight released its latest rankings of Senate races most likely to switch parties in 2010. Texas fell this month because that blog is under the impression that Kay might not really be resigning (link). Excerpt follows...
12. Texas (R-Open?)
I'm giving this race a slight nudge downward because Kay Bailey Hutchison has fallen behind incumbent governor Rick Perry in the polls and it wouldn't completely shock me if she decides that the Senate is a pretty comfy place instead. One interesting wrinkle if Hutchison does decide to run for governor (as is still probable): Texas would hold a nonpartisan blanket primary for her senate seat, with the two leading candidates squaring off in the run-off. It's not entirely out of those questions that those two leading candidates could both be from the same party.
I think Kay is in the race and has already mentally and financially put too much into the race against Rick to turn back now. She even said on Monday that her exploratory phase is over. If there is an open primary for the Senate, it could be bad for Republicans because we have half a dozen or 8 candidates and the Dems have 2 strong candidates.

Later, that same blog blogged this graph (link)...


I think Kay needs to make a decision and stick to it. This wishy washy running or not running stuff does not seem like real leadership.

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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.