Thursday, July 16, 2009

More on Rick's lead in the polls...

With Rick's latest 10 point lead in the polls, I did some research to find some more recent polling...

Last week Rick was up by a big margin in the polls, and the always intrepid Jason Embry wrote a nice piece on it that I somehow missed until this morning (link). Excerpts follow...
"In Texas, there's a difference between fixing to do something and doing something," said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. "Time to do something."

The contrast between the campaigns was clear over the Fourth of July weekend, when Perry attended four "tea party" events across the state rallying opposition to the Obama administration. Hutchison, whose staff said she always spends the holiday with her family, attended one parade near her Dallas home.


"I think people overestimated the Hutchison advantage from the beginning," he said.

Hutchison will have a chance to reassert her candidacy next week when she must report how much money she raised in the first half of the year. She is likely to have a significant cash advantage at that point because she has been free to raise money over the past six months. As a statewide official, Perry was barred from fundraising between mid-December and June 22. State law prohibits fundraising during and immediately before and after the legislative session.
In my opinion Kay needed to have raised 10-15 million dollars to make a big splash, and she needed to have at least 16 or 18 million cash on hand to regain a little bit of momentum. Her below 10 million dollar showing in the first 6 months of 2009 was a big disappointment.

Kay needs some good news to go her way, but the problem is that summertime is a lull for politics and there just will not be a lot that she can do to make an impact.

With the latest poll news and Kay's disappointing campaign finance reports, Kay is going to have to find something that works. Being an attack dog might be her only hope.

The one thing Kay does have over Rick is a more aggressive msm team. Kay has had lots of op eds in newspapers, some of which make subtle attacks on Rick, while Rick has had zero over the same time.

Kay gets headlines about stealing Rick donors, when it is actually true that Rick stole Kay donors as well. That to me says that Rick's team is dropping the ball. I doubt the mainstream media could misreport it so grossly and inaccurately otherwise. In total Rick is getting a lot worse msm press than Kay these days, and I think Paul Burka's criticism of Kay's campaign staff being incompetent totally misses the mark... Kay's team is getting a lot better msm press for her than Rick's team is getting.

That does not seem to even matter does it?

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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.