To many Texas political observers, it came as little surprise when a ream of polls came out earlier this year showing her well ahead of incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry, including a Public Policy Polling survey in February showing Hutchison with a commanding 56 percent to 31 percent lead.
But as Hutchison prepares to formally announce the launch of her campaign next month, the election landscape tells a very different story. A Rasmussen survey released last week showed Perry opening up a 46 percent to 36 percent lead over Hutchison, while a Texas Politics Project poll conducted late last month showed Perry leading Hutchison 38 percent to 26 percent. A Texas Lyceum survey conducted late last month, meanwhile, showed Perry leading 33 percent to 21 percent.
“I’m very surprised,” said Craig Murphy, a leading Republican strategist in the state. “I think everybody’s surprised. Everyone assumed that her favorability would put her way ahead to start with.”
[SNIP]And Hutchison staffers contend that Perry’s rhetorical focus hits some false notes.
“Rick Perry’s self-serving political calculations are always based on political expediency and never a philosophy or vision. Kay Bailey Hutchison is proud of her record of standing up and saying no to big spending, whether voting against the out-of-control stimulus package or Obama’s trillion-dollar budget,” said Hutchison spokesman Hans Klingler.
“There will be many polls between now and March. Our goal is to win the only one that counts, ... on Election Day.”
Still, aside from boosting his once-lagging poll numbers, Perry’s spring offensive has renewed what insiders in the state say is a key question about Hutchison: whether she’s ready to take a punch.
While her contest against Perry is widely expected to be among the most expensive and hard-fought contests of the 2010 cycle, the 66-year-old Hutchison — though one of the state’s most popular politicians — has yet to engage in a no-holds-barred electoral contest. Perry, for his part, is no stranger to tough races. In 2002, he survived a vitriolic contest against Democrat Tony Sanchez, who outspent Perry in the race $67 million to $28 million. In 2006, Perry won another tough fight, that time against Democrat Chris Bell.
“Perry’s had lots of tough campaigns that he’s already been through, and she hasn’t,” said Murphy, the Texas-based GOP strategist. “No one knows how she will respond to that.”
I think this is one of the big themes that I see coming up in this race. How will Kay respond to being matched dollar for dollar on television... how will she respond when Rick and his notoriously scrappy peeps go negative. In every campaign since 1993 Kay has brought a laser guided push button bazooka to a knife fight and never really had to engage. Rick has beaten bazookas more than once with a zip gun and some brass knuckles.
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Hey now, campaign characters. Be nice. I know a lot of you on both sides, so I don't want any overly foul language, personal attacks on anyone other than the candidates themselves, or other party fouls. I will moderate the heck out of you if you start breaking the bounds of civility.